National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Goddard Space Flight Center

Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences Laboratory (614)

Profile for Molly Brown

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Title:	Research Scientist
Affiliation:	NASA
Contact:	E-mail Biospheric Sciences Branch Code 614.4 Greenbelt, MD 20771 Office Phone: 301-614-6616 Fax: 301-614-6695

Profile

EDUCATION

Ph.D. in Geography, University of Maryland College Park, 2002: Area of Specialization: Remote Sensing, Economics and Development
Thesis Title: The Impact of Biophysical Conditions on Food Security in Three Sahelian
Countries. Advisor: Stephen D. Prince

M.A. in Geography, University of Maryland College Park, 1998 Title of scholarly paper, in partial fulfillment of requirements: Coping: with food security risk in

B.S. in Biology and Environmental Sciences, Tufts University, 1991: Medford, Massachusetts

POSITIONS AND APPOINTMENTS

Senior Research Scientist, Science Systems and Applications, Inc. at NASA 3/02 – present

Conduct global change and sustainable development research using socio-economic and
biophysical datasets.
Evaluation of integrated remotely sensed variables for long-term climate and anthropogenic
environmental change studies, with particular focus on semi-arid regions.
Interdisciplinary research focused understanding how organizations use remote sensing data in
decision making processes.
Liaison and Principal Investigator in a project collaborating with the US Agency for International
Development’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), ensuring their access and
effective use of a real time and projected vegetation index and rainfall data for Africa, Central
America, Afghanistan and Haiti.
Advisor to NASA’s Application Division’s International Sustainable Development initiative.

Faculty Research Assistant, University of Maryland 1/99 – 3/02

Worked with resident scientists on a variety of technical and scientific objectives, including
mapping, cataloging and delivering AVHRR 8km datasets to various clients;
Collaborated with the NASA Global Mapping and Modeling Systems (GIMMS) Group on producing
and distributing a consistent, coherent 24-year vegetation index dataset from AVHRR data;
Conducted original research on the interaction of grain prices and vegetation dynamics in the West
African Sahel;

Professional Education Program Manager, SENECI 7/94 – 9/95

Conceived, marketed, and implemented multiple 5-day local language (Wolof) professional
development programs for secretaries and mid-level managers for this small American consulting
firm in Dakar, Senegal.

Volunteer, US Peace Corps, Senegal 6/92 – 7/94

Developed an outdoor education program for elementary schools involving teacher training,
curriculum development and student projects that was adopted by environmental education
volunteers throughout the U.S. Peace Corps in the Africa and Latin American regions.

TEACHING EXPERIENCE

Assistant Professorial Lecturer in Geography, George Washington University 1/04 – 5/04: Geog 107, Introduction to Remote Sensing, Department of Geography
Course included weekly image processing laboratory, using ENVI software

Faculty Teaching Assistant, University of Maryland 9/97 – 5/98: Human Geography, Department of Geography, approximately 150 students, two semesters.

Vegetation Data and Links

Where can I get the GIMMS Group AVHRR NDVI historical data? Go to the University of Maryland's Global Land Cover Facility

The new collaborative Long Term Data Record (LTDR) project using AVHRR data can be found at LTDR

To see real-time NDVI anomaly images for Africa from both AVHRR and SPOT, go to:
NDVI Anomalies for Africa and Afghanistan

To get real-time climate and weather data for Africa, Central America, Afghanistan and other regions, go to the NOAA CPC/FEWS page at:
Weather Hazards Site

FEWS NET Web Site

Research Interests

Research Interests
Molly E. Brown, PhD

My research contributes to NASA’s mission: ‘to advance and communicate scientific knowledge and understanding of the earth, the solar system, and the universe’. Two NASA earth science questions are at the center of my work: ‘How does the earth system respond to natural and human-induced changes?’ and ‘What are the consequences of change in the earth system for human civilization?’ To explore these questions, I conduct research in four areas: data fusion to develop long term data records of vegetation dynamics for carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystem modeling; research to develop science data and analysis for societal applications; modeling of land cover and land use in the context of climate variability; and the development of models and methods that enable the quantification of the impact of climate change on human economic and political systems.

Data Fusion for Long Term Environmental Data Records
Accurate, consistent, and comparable datasets are necessary to advance our understanding of and ability to model human-ecosystems-climate interactions and are central to modeling changes in the carbon cycle. The use of spectral-based vegetation indices was first developed from ground-based experiments and subsequently applied by earth-orbiting satellites to the entire terrestrial surface. Spectral vegetation indices are the most widely used retrieval of earth science data, and are invaluable for determining change through time. My work at NASA Goddard began by mapping AVHRR data for the African and South American continents for Compton Tucker during the last re-processing of the GIMMS NDVIg dataset. My current research focuses on developing methods and models for data fusion which will produce the long-term satellite data products needed for assessing natural and anthropogenic impacts on the carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystems. This fusion research utilizes data from NASA Earth-imaging sensors Landsat, AVHRR, MODIS, SeaWiFS, and are designed to incorporate data from NPP VIIRS and LDCM when they become available. My research will provide the datasets needed to determine the effects of climate change on land ecosystems, on the global carbon balance, on possible human habitability impacts of these changes, while providing insights for calibrating and validating these satellite sensor systems.

Recently I assembled a team to explore the spatial and statistical relationships between data from MODIS, AVHRR and SPOT Vegetation in order to develop effective approaches to fuse the long term AVHRR record with modern MODIS and eventually with VIIRS data. We found that in general the response of the multi-sensor dataset is consistent with geostatistical theory, with the exception of sporadic heterogeneity observed in the SPOT-VGT data relative to coarser resolution AVHRR NDVI and nearly the same resolution MODIS 1-km NDVI product. Overall, the cross-scale geostatistical analysis of spatial variance is a promising method for comparison of actual multi-sensor datasets and may form the basis of approaches that will seamlessly merge data from widely varying sensors into a single dataset.

Research on Applications of Science for Society
NASA’s strategic goal three includes the following objective: to ‘study planet Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.’ The last 20 years has seen dramatic progress in the ability of scientists to produce seasonal and inter-annual predictions of climate dynamics. Little progress has been made, however, in using these predictions in vulnerable sectors of the global economy and in the regions of the world with the poorest people. This is caused by a significant gap between the scientists who create the models and the practical needs of the broad, multi-disciplinary decision-making environment of potential users. Much more work needs to be done to tailor existing forecast and prediction products into existing decision frameworks. In my work with USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), I have collaborated with other scientists to develop and implement short, medium and long-term climate data and models for the large network of climate data users with which FEWS NET has strong ties. This research has resulted in a book published by Springer-Verlag entitled Famine Early Warning Systems and Remote Sensing Data, due out in May 2008 and several peer-reviewed journal articles, one of which was published in Science. The research has also led my involvement in proposals to NASA and NOAA: as a co-Investigator on a funded NSF START PACOM small grant proposal to implement a disaster response program in Senegal, as Principal Investigator for a pending NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Proposal opportunity, and as Principal Investigator on a successful $1.4 million request to the 2005 NASA CAN entitled ‘Decision Support through Earth Science Results’, supporting the integration short-term projections of rainfall and vegetation into their decision support system.

I have recently begun a new research program which will tie in Goddard research on carbon modeling, flux modeling, and water quality modeling and a new proposed in-situ environmental monitoring network to document the impact of small scale changes in landscape management at Goddard through collaboration with Goddard Master Planner Alan Binstock and NASA HQ Environmental manager Sam Higuchi. This will lead to a new proposal to the DOD proposal opportunity called the Strategic Environmental Development and Research Program (www.serdp.org) and to NASA ROSES in the next few months.

Land use and Land Cover
Addressing human adaptation to coupled climate-land change is one of the more pressing science needs identified in the recent literature on the effects of climate change. The most recent IPCC report on Africa listed several acute needs regarding vulnerability-led research including: (1) understanding the relationship between climate and land use change; (2) examining the “more detailed local-level analyses of the role of multiple interacting factors, including development activities and climate risk-reduction in the African context”; and (3) regional studies “focusing on future options and pathways for adaptation”. I am working with several different collaborative teams to conduct integrative research on these questions, enabling a better understanding of the impact of climate change on food security, disaster management land use and land cover transformations in West and Southern Africa. This research is a new direction for me, thus currently I am involved in several submitted, developing or potential proposals to NASA ROSES opportunities, to NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program and to the National Science Foundation.

Impacts of Climate Change on Society
As part of research which seeks to understand the consequences of climate extremes and climate change for human civilization, I have a long standing research initiative that seeks to integrate environmental observations with economic models to better understand the implications of climate change. For my doctoral research, I developed a model which used variations in vegetation as measured by satellite-derived indices to improve models that predict food prices in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The research contributes to the objective of developing new models and data products that can provide earlier early warning of food security crises. Exploiting the continuous temporal and spatial aspects of vegetation data, the economic model allows for mapping of variations in prices that would not otherwise be possible without the contribution of vegetation data. The work has been published in peer-reviewed journal articles in Climatic Change and Land Economics. Recently I have begun to extend this economic research through collaboration with graduate students at the University of Maryland’s Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. The research will focus on market solutions and new adaptation options to climate change for the poor in Africa.

Selected Publications

Brown, M.E. (2009). Food Security, Decision Making and the use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems. Geography Compass, 3(4), 1381–1407

Brown, M.E., B. Hintermann, and N. Higgins (2009). Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa. Environmental Science and Technology, 43(18)

Funk, C., and M.E. Brown (2009). Declining Global per Capital Agricultural Capacity and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security. Food Security Journal
10.1007/s12571-009-0026-y

Ross, K.W., M.E. Brown, J. Verdin, and L.W. Underwood (2009). Review of FEWS NET biophysical monitoring requirements. Environmental Research Letters, 4(2), 024009
10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024009

Bro-Jørgensen, J., M.E. Brown, and N. Pettorelli (2008). Using the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to explain ranging patterns in a lek-breeding antelope: the importance of scale. Oecologia
10.1007/s00442-008-1121-z

Brown, M.E., C.C. Funk, J. Verdin, and G. Eilerts (2008). Ensuring food security – Response. Sci., 320(5876), 611-612
10.1126/science.320.5876.611

Brown, M.E. (2008). Famine Early Warning Systems and Remote Sensing Data. Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, XVIII, 313 pp, 91 illus, IS

Brown, M.E., and C.C. Funk (2008). Food Security Under Climate Change. Sci., 319, 580-581
10.1126/science.1154102

Brown, M.E. (2008). The Impact of Climate Change on Income Diversification and Food Security in Senegal. In A. Millington, W. Jepson (Ed.), Land Change Science in the Tropics: Changing Agricultural Landscapes (Chapter 3, pp. 33-52). Berlin: Springer-Verlag

Brown, M.E., S.D. Prince, and J.E. Pinzon (2008). Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model. Land Economics, 84(2), 340-357
10.3368/le.84.2.340

Brown, M.E., and K.M. de Beurs (2008). Evaluation of multi-sensor semi-arid crop season parameters based on NDVI and rainfall. Remote Sens. Environ., 112(5), 2261-2271
10.1016/j.rse.2007.10.008

Brown, M.E., C.C. Funk, R. Choularton, and J. Verdin (2008). Merging Models with Observations for Earth Monitoring Data for Earlier Famine Early Warning. Proc. IGARSS

Brown, M.E., and B. McCusker (2008). Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Book Review in EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 89(47)
10.1029/2008EO470009

Brown, M.E., D. Lary, A. Vrieling, D. Stathakis, and H. Mussa (2008). Neural Networks as a Tool for Constructing Continuous NDVI Time Series from AVHRR and MODIS. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 29(24), 7141-7158
10.1080/01431160802238435

Brown, M.E., C.C. Funk, J. Verdin, and G. Eilerts (2008). Ensuring Food Security (in Letters). Science, 320(5876), 611-612
10.1126/science.320.5876.611

Brown, M.E., and C.C. Funk (2008). Food Security under Climate Change. Science, 319(5863), 580-581
10.1126/science.1154102

Brown, M.E., and K. de Beurs (2008). Evaluation of Multi-Sensor Semi-Arid Crop Season Parameters Based on NDVI and Rainfall. Remote Sensing of Environment, 112(5), 2261-2271
10.1016/j.rse.2007.10.008

Brown, M.E., J.E. Pinzon, and S.D. Prince (2008). Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model. Land Economics, 84(2), 342–359

Funk, C.C., M. Dettinger, J. Michaelsen, J.P. Verdin, M.E. Brown, M. Barlow, and A. Hoell (2008). The Warm Ocean Dry Africa dipole threatens food insecurity in Africa, but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(32), 11081-11086
10.1073/pnas.0708196105

Tarnavsky, E., S. Garrigues, and M.E. Brown (2008). Multiscale geostatistical analysis of AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS global NDVI products. Remote Sensing of Environment, 112(2), 535-549
10.1016/j.rse.2007.05.008

Vrieling, A., K.M. de Beurs, and M.E. Brown (2008). Recent trends in agricultural production of Africa based on AVHRR NDVI time series. In C.M.U. Neale, M. Owe, G. D'Irso (Ed.), Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology X Proc. SPIE Int. Soc. Opt. Eng.
10.1117/12.799824

Brown, M.E., C.C. Funk, G. Galu, and R. Choularton (2007). Earlier Famine Warning Possible Using Remote Sensing and Models. EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 88(39), 381–382

Brown, M.E., J.E. Pinzon, K. Didan, J.T. Morisette, and C.J. Tucker (2006). Evaluation of the Consistency of Long-Term NDVI Time Series Derived From AVHRR, SPOT-Vegetation, SeaWiFS, MODIS, and Landsat ETM+ Sensors. IEEE Transactions Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 44(7), 1787-1793
10.1109/TGRS.2005.860205

Brown, M.E. (2006). Assessing Natural Resource Management Challenges in Senegal Using Data from Participatory Rural Appraisals and Remote Sensing. World Development, 34(4), 751-767
10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.10.002

Brown, M.E., J.E. Pinzon, and S.D. Prince (2006). The Sensitivity of Millet Prices to Vegetation Dynamics in the Informal Markets of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Climatic Change, 78, 181-202

Funk, C.C., and M.E. Brown (2006). Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa. Remote Sensing of Environment, 101, 249-256
10.1016/j.rse.2005.12.014

Brown, M.E., and S. Habib (2005). The Famine Early Warning System and NASA Earth Science Data. 31st International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment Technical Program Proceedings

Brown, M.E., J.E. Pinzon, and C.J. Tucker (2004). New Vegetation Index Dataset Available to Monitor Global Change. In, EOS (565-569). Transactions of the American Geophysical Union

Pinzon, J.E., J.F. Pierce, C.J. Tucker, and M.E. Brown (2001). Evaluating Coherence of Natural Images by Smoothness Membership in Besov Spaces. In, IEEE Transactions (1879-1889). Geoscience and Remote Sensing
10.1109/36.951078

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